On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being well on the road to recovery, where are we now?
Wydick: I would say a 2 or 3 at the most. This recession ought to be much steeper than the one in the early 2000s and probably even steeper and maybe longer than the one in the early ’80s. The problem was that we understood the one in the ’80s—you had to raise interest rates to kill inflation. That one was a no-brainer and it just had to happen. This one is bigger and more mysterious. World trade is down 45 percent over several months ago, which is calamitous. Fortunately, (President Barack) Obama has realized that we can’t get into a “better than thy neighbor” trade situation, which could literally throw the whole world into a depression as it did in the ’30s. He’s backing off the “buy America” kinds of things, but every country is trying to subsidize its domestic industries, which amounts to almost the same thing. Everyone is trying to save their own industries.
Puntillo: That’s normal. You’re taking government money, public money, and putting it into private enterprise, so you like to think you’re going to build American jobs. If everyone does that, international trade falls. I wouldn’t even guess where we are in the funnel.
Edwards: I think we’re in step one of the scientific method—acknowledgement of a problem. But delineating the problem precisely is difficult. The problem manifests itself into so many permutations that we don’t have problem clarity.
Takahashi: Plus, people are starting to tighten their belts and not buy things, so that’s making recovery even more difficult.
Edwards: We’re having a reality check. Even some people who may not be in financial difficulty are feeling the tension around them and thinking, “Is this a contagion and will I get it and do I need to insulate myself?” I think people realistically are reassessing themselves, their ambitions, their aspirations. There’s a lot of anxiety because we just don’t know what’s down the road, we can’t see around the corner. Folks are playing their cards close to the vest.
Wydick: I like the passage in the New Testament that talks about trials developing character. When you look at the generation that went through the Depression, there was a character formation that happened in that great generation that I think is largely absent in us today. I’m not saying that we should seek out difficult times, but at the same time, it’s an opportunity for people to pull together, to care for the least fortunate in their community. There could be some opportunities for growth as a country.
Edwards: There is this tremendous sense of extending help you see across the country where agencies that used to provide food and services to the poor or the marginally working class are now serving a population of a higher income and that population of a higher income is now meeting and interacting with people they may not have met before. For charitable organizations, there’s a tremendous need. The other part of the equation is that charitable organizations are experiencing a downturn in terms of contributions. Will the nonprofits have enough resources to continue to do what they’re doing? As individuals tighten their belts, they’re going to make less of a contribution.
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