MBA 603

Graduate Introduction to Business Statistics

Prof. Stephen J. Huxley

Spring, 2004

(Note:  Please check the course website for revisions to this syllabus.)

Office: McLaren 210               email: huxleys@usfca.edu        Phone: 415-422-6628        Fax: 415-422-2502
Office Hours:  Wed. and Thurs. 5:15-6:00 PM, directly following the class or by appointment. 
 
Website: http://www.usfca.edu/fac-staff/huxleys (Note:  Revisions to this syllabus will posted to the website if needed, so you should always check it there as the semester progresses.  Also, If I notify you by email that I have posted a message, you can check the message board at http://connect.usfca.edu/cp/home/loginf under the “My Courses” tab.

Primary Learning Goals:

1. To familiarize students with the fundamentals of the logic and principles of descriptive and inferential statistics.  Emphasis is on applications for business decisions.

2. To introduce students to the use of spreadsheets for analysis purposes.

 

Textbooks:

1. Required:  Huxley, Lecture Notes

You must bring these notes to class each time.

 

2. Required:  Kazmier, Business Statistics, 3rd ed., Shaum’s Outline Series, McGraw-Hill, (1996). 

This will be the main text for the course, but if you have an old statistics text already that was published within the past ten years, you may not need it.  I selected Kazmier to keep the total cost of your books down.  It is a good idea to have a couple of sources for reference.  The library has a few available you can borrow.  Textbooks are best viewed as reference documents, not as novels.  

 

3. Required:  Middleton, Data Analysis Using Microsoft Excel: Updated for Office XP (Duxbury, 2004)

Much of your homework will come from Prof. Middleton popular manual on the data analysis features of Excel.  Completing these exercises will bring you close to becoming a “power-user” of Excel.

 

4. Required:  Huff, How to Lie with Statistics (1993)

A thin paperback, this old book is still considered a timeless classic. The clarity of the writing style and the humorous examples make it an easy read. The prices and values he uses from the 1950’s can be converted to current prices by multiplying by six, but it is remarkable how the flaws he points out are as prevalent today as they were then. 

 

5. Required:  Paulos, Beyond Numeracy, Vintage (1992)

Beyond Numeracy was written in response to the success of Paulos’s earlier book, Innumeracy, which actually made it to the NT Times Best Seller List.  It consists of a series of over 70 short essays on various mathematical topics.  I have tried to match the essays to topics discussed in class.  Sometimes this is a loose fit because the book is not designed specifically for this course, but as MBA students, you need to at least have a cursory knowledge of a broad range of quantitative topics, and I know of no better book.

6. Required:  Tufte, Visual Display of Quantitative Information, 2nd ed. (2001)

Analyzing data and modeling decisions is often the precursor to presenting conclusions to others.  Tufte is one of the few statisticians who has recognized the need to present information properly through the use of graphical design.  Those who like Tufte’s approach will also enjoy his two other books that go even more deeply in the topic (available in the library).

 

7. Optional: Lehmann and Zeitz, Quantitative Methods for Business, (Wiley, 2003)

If you already have this text, I suggest you keep it for reference purposes.  Chapters 7 and 8 cover probability and statistics.

 

 

Note - This course will also utilize a number of video tapes from the Annenberg/CBP Project (http://www.learner.org/search/advanced_browse.html ).  Most of these were made in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s.  But although they are beginning to age, nothing new has come along that does a better job.  Like the writings of Aristotle and Plato, good explanations of how quantitative analyses are applied in the real world never go “out of date.”

 

Assessment:

Quizzes = 20% 

Homework = 30%
Final Exam= 50%

Grading: Letter grades for the course will be based on the following approximate scale: 93 percent and above = A, 88-92 percent = A-, 85-87 percent = B+, 70 to 84 percent = B. Since this is a graduate class, I expect no one to get below 70 percent, but should anyone fail to achieve this level, grades of B- down through F may be awarded.

Quizzes: You should anticipate a short quiz (closed book) each week on the readings, handouts, homework topics, and/or prior lecture material.  I will drop your lowest score. If you have done the homework and readings, come to class and paid attention, these quizzes should present no difficulty.

Final Exam: You may use any text for the exam but not the Lecture Notes.  You may bring in four double-sided sheets of study notes for the exam, but they must contain only original print or writing - absolutely no photocopies or scanning of anything.  I retain the right to inspect and remove any study notes that violate this condition. Calculators are permitted but not laptops. If you cannot attend the exam for reasons beyond your control, notify me before test time if you wish to be eligible for a make-up.

Homework Assignments: You must email your homework to me according to the instructions below.  You will often be simply duplicating examples. The advantage to this is you get instant feedback that you are doing it correctly. The disadvantage is that you could conceivably get the correct result by blindly following the step-by-step procedures without really learning how you got it, especially if you fail to read the supporting material and understand the explanations. Your own education is at stake here, and I presume you are mature enough to avoid the temptation to “just get it done” without understanding it.  If you succumb to a “monkey-see monkey-do” modus operandi, your knowledge base will be very shallow. 

Homework is to be turned in individually, but I encourage you to help each other. As always, the educational value of the class is of paramount importance. If this purpose is best served by seeking voluntary assistance from others in the class, you should feel free to do so. Anyone who feels burdened by a DLP (Dumb Lazy Parasite) should see me. You may also seek the assistance of the teaching assistant for this course – details will be announced in class.

You can check your homework score on the website, usually posted within one week of the due date.  A score of 10 will tell you that you did it perfectly.  If you follow the instructions below faithfully, you should end up with a perfect score on all homework assignments.  If you have any questions about your homework, you can email your request to me.  In tallying your final grades, I will drop your lowest homework score. I also reserve the right to award extra credit to students whose work is not only tidy and neat but also shows exemplary style.  It is one thing to get the generically correct answer. It is something else to get it and present it with design, appearance and style. Anybody can make a video or movie – Steven Spielberg does it with style.

Instructions for Emailing Homework – Please follow closely.  If you have any questions, please ask me.

1. Excel homework must be emailed to me before the beginning of the class meeting on the due date.  Late homework will be eligible for only half credit if turned in within one week after the due date. Because computers and email traffic is sensitive to small errors, you must follow the rest of these instructions precisely to be eligible for credit. Send it to: huxleyhomework@usfca.edu and send a copy to yourself to prove you sent it on time in case there is a problem.

2. In the email Subject line, indicate the course, section homework number, and name. For example, John Smith, SID number 123-45-6789, is enrolled in MBA 603Grad. Intro to Business Statistics, in the Thursday, 6:00 PM section and is emailing his second Excel homework. In his email, he would put

Subject:           603Th6HW2smitjo.xls

3. Attach the file using the same name as the subject line. For John Smith, this would be

 

Attachment file name: 603Th6HW2smitjo.xls

 

4. In cell A1 on the first sheet (or ‘tab’ or ‘ply’) of the homework, type the same file name again. In cell A2, type your real name in full, in A3, your SID, in A4, you section, and in A5, the homework number. John Smith would type:

 

A

1

603Th6HW2smitjo.xls

2

John Smith

3

123-45-6789

4

Th 6:00 PM

5

Homework 2

 

5. When doing your homework, put each figure on a separate sheet (or ‘tab’ or ‘ply’) within the same workbook. For example, if Homework 2 says to replicate

Figure 4.4 then the second tab should be renamed from “Sheet 2” to “HW2 Fig. 4.4,” and the third to “HW2 Fig. 4.7,” etc.  (Right click on the tab for the ‘Rename’ command; you can also insert new sheets with the right click as needed.)  When you save the file, position the cursor so that the appropriate figure is the first thing a person sees when viewing that sheet (to go the Cell A1 quickly, use Control Home on your keyboard).  If you do not complete a particular figure, such as Figure 4.9, you should still rename the tab HW2 Fig 4.9 and in Cell A1, type ‘HW2 Fig. 4.9 Not Done.”

6. Save all the work assigned for the homework in a single Excel file and send it only once.  Remember to send a copy to yourself to prove when you sent it in case there is a problem.  Homework sent in bits and pieces cannot be given any credit.  Your submission will be opened only once, and only the first one received will count, so do not send it until it is completely ready and all parts are finished.  (Put yourself in the place of the grader – opening many files and searching for randomly placed material is a nuisance and waste of time.)  Again, if you follow these instructions faithfully, you should end up with a perfect score on the homework section of the course.


Topical Coverage:  Always bring your Lecture Notes to class.  You should do the readings before class as indicated below.  Quizzes will cover the readings and prior lecture material.  For Excel homework from Middleton, “Figures 3.6” means read and work through the example in his Chapter 3 to understand the procedure and theory (consult another text if the theory is not clear), then do all the steps necessary to get the result in Figure 3.6.

 

Class   Thursday

1          3/25/04  Introduction – Fundamentals of Descriptive Statistics and Excel

Overview of course

Videos:  AAO 2, AAO 14

Reading and assignments due before the next class:

                        1. Read (as needed) Kazmier Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4

2. Read Paulos:  141 (Mean…), 202 (Quantifiers…), 227 (Statistics…)

3. Read Tufte: Chp. 1, 2

4. Read Middleton:  Chapter 1, 2, 3

5. Homework 1:  Replicate Middleton’s Figure 3.1, 3.3, 3.4, 3.6 (Review the instructions above on how to submit home work.  The first tab on your worksheet should be your ID information, then each figure should be on a separate tab and labeled properly by renaming the tab “HW1 Fig 3.1, HW1 Fig 3.3, etc.)

 

2          4/1/04 The Logic of Statistics

Due:  Homework 1 (see above)

Videos:  AAO 11, AAO 12

Reading and assignments due before the 4/15/04 class:

                        1. Read Kazmier Chapters 5, 6, 7

2. Read Paulos:  237 (Tautologies…)

3. Read Huff: Chp. 1, 2

4. Read Handout:  Design of Experiments

5. Read Tufte:  Chp. 3, 4, 5

6. Middleton:  Homework 2: 

a. Replicate Middleton’s Figure 4.4, 4.7, 4.9 (Descriptive Statistics)

b. Replicate Middleton’s Figures 5.8, 5.10, 5.11, 5.12, 5.13, 5.14, 5.15, 5.16 (Pivot Tables.  Note - pivot tables are sometimes easier to work with if you Copy/Paste Special/Values the entire table before performing any final operations.)

 

3          4/8/04 Holy Thursday – No Class

 

4          4/15/04 Probability, Normal Distribution and the Magic of the Central Limit Theorem

Due:  Homework 2 (see above)

Videos AAO 4, AAO 5, AAO 18 (Part A)

Reading and assignments due before the next class:

                        1. Read Kazmier Chapters 8, 9

2. Read Paulos:  38 (Coincidences), 150 (The Multiplication…), 187 (Probability),

3. Read Huff: Chp. 3, 4

4. Read Tufte:  Chp. 6, 7

5. Middleton:  Homework 3: (Note – because the following figures are randomly generated,

your figures will not be identical to those shown in Middleton.)

            a.  Replicate Middleton’s Figure 7.7, 7.10, 7.11

            b. Replicate Middleton’s Figure 8.1, 8.4, 8.5, 8.7, 8.8

5          4/16/04 (Friday Evening) Make-up for Holy Thursday Class

I will be available to meet with anyone who wishes to meet with me in my office or respond to emails or telephone calls regarding the material.  However, you must make an appointment with me before the 4/15/04 class.

 

6          4/22/04 Confidence Intervals and Classic Hypothesis Testing

Due:  Homework 3 (see above)

Videos AAO 19, AAO 20

Reading and assignments due before the next class:

                        1. Read Kazmier Chapters 10, 11

2. Read Paulos:  169 (Partial...)

3. Read Huff: Chp. 5, 6

4. Read Tufte: Chp. 8, 9

5. Middleton:  Homework 4:

            a. Replicate Middleton’s Figure 9.2, 9.4, 9.6, 9.9, 9.10

 

7          4/29/04 Confidence Intervals and Classic Hypothesis Testing - Continued

Due:  Homework 4 (see above)

Videos AAO 21, AAO 22

Reading and assignments due before the next class:

                        1. Read Kazmier Chapter 12, 17, 21

2. Read Paulos:  262 (Voting …)

3. Read Huff: Chp. 7, 8

4. Middleton:  Homework 5: 

a. Replicate Middleton’s Figure 11.7, 11.8

 

8          5/6/04 NonParametric Statistics and Review

Due:  Homework 5 (see above)

Videos AAO 23, AAO 24

Reading and assignments due before the next class:

1. Read Huff:  9, 10

2. Middleton:  Homework 6:

a. Replicate Middleton’s Figure 12.1, 12.5, 12.6

b. Optional (20% extra credit on this homework if you choose to do this on your own): Replicate Middleton’s Figure 13.5, 13.8, 13.13, 13.14

9          5/13/04 Final Exam

 

 

 

______________________________________________________________________________________

AGAINST ALL ODDS

Statistics on Video

Hosted by

 Dr. Teresa M. Amabile, Assoc. Prof. of Psychology at Bradeis Univ.

Available from the USF Library

 

CONTENTS:

 

Program 1: What is Statistics?

Program 2 - Picturing distributions

Program 3 - Describing Distributions

Program 4 - Normal Distribution

Program 5 - Normal Calculations

Program 6 - Time Series

Program 7 - Models of Growth

Program  8 - Describing Relationships

Program 9 - Correlation

Program 10 - Multidimensional analysis

Program 11 - Causation

Program 12 - Design of Experiments

Program 13 - Blocking and Sampling

Program 14 - Sampling and Surveys

Program 15 - What is probability

Program 16 - Random Variables

Program 17 - The Binomial Distribution

Program 18 - Sample Means and Control Charts

Program 19 - Confidence Intervals

Program 20 - Significance Tests

Program 21 - Inference for One Mean

Program 22 - Comparing Two Means

Program 23 - Inference for Proportions

Program 24 - Inference for 2-way Tables

Program 25 - Inferences for Relationships

Program 26 - A Case Study  - The AZT Drug Experiment (AIDS treatment)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

 

Business Statistics, 3rd Ed.

(Shaum's Outline Series - McGraw Hill)

By Leonard Kazmier (1996)

Table of Contents

(Read equivalent material in any other post-1995 statistics text)

Chapter 1 ANALYZING BUSINESS DATA

Chapter 2 STATISTICAL PRESENTATIONS AND GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS

Chapter 3 DESCRlBlNG BUSINESS DATA: MEASURES OF LOCATION

Chapter 4 DESCRIBING BUSINESS DATA: MEASURES OF VARIABILITY

Chapter 5 PROBABILITY

Chapter 6 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES:
BINOMIAL HYPERGEOMETRIC, AND POISSON

Chapter 7 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS FOR CONTINUOUS RANDOM
VARIABLES: NORMAL AND EXPONENTIAL

Chapter 8 SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS AND CONFIDENCE
INTERVALS FOR THE MEAN

Chapter 9 OTHER CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

Chapter 10 TESTING HYPOTHESES CONCERNING THE VALUE OF
THE POPULATION MEAN

Chapter 11 TESTING OTHER HYPOTHESES

Chapter 12 THE CHI-SQUARE TEST

Chapter 13 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE

Chapter 14 LINEAR REGRESSION AND CORRELATION ANALYSIS

Chapter 15 MULTIPLE REGRESSION AND CORRELATION

Chapter 16 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS AND BUSINESS FORECASTING

Chapter 17 INDEX NUMBERS FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC DATA

Chapter 18 DECISION ANALYSIS: PAYOFF TABLES AND DECISION TREES

Chapter 19 DECISION ANALYSIS: THE USE OF SAMPLE INFORMATION

Chapter 20 STATISTICAL PROCESS CONTROL

Chapter 21 NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICS